A Scottish Currency

	   If Scotland calls another Independence Referendum
	   we must offer a post-            Independence currency
	   that we can deliver.  We must learn the right lessons. 

Posted: Wed 29 Jun, 2016, 12:40
As a second Scottish Independence referendum now looks inevitable, we need to remember lessons from very recent history. It is essential that we have complete clarity on the currency Scotland would have before we commit to another independence referendum, otherwise we can expect the same result.

The Euro problem

Just a few years ago there was the financial crisis that spanned all European countries, impacting Greece to the extent that they effectively ran out of money and survived on life support from Germany. At that time the future of the Euro as a currency was in question and people were rightly questioning how a proud and independent country like Greece could find itself in such a situation. Spain and other countries had very similar issues that still reverberate today. While the Brexit crisis has eclipsed all other current Euro crises for now, we need to remember why the UK didn't joined the Euro and not assume it is suddenly the best option for Scotland.

The key issues with the the euro was that it allowed countries, and banks within their countries, to access loans in euros at a far cheaper rate than they would previously have been able to borrow. Before the euro, every country would have been able to borrow at a rate that reflects the credit rating of each individual nation. This would automatically limit borrowing and encourage responsible access to funds. The euro "smoothed" over all these national idiosyncracies, offering one rate and assumed there was one united policitical and economic machine underneath - and there is not. There is no political union today. Adopting the Euro as a smaller, weaker nation is a hugely risky venture.

Remember why Scotland voted No

The second thing to remember is why Scotland voted to remain in the United Kingdom.

The main factor, exploited to the maximum by Project Fear in the final weeks of the campaign, was that people did not know what our economic footing would be after independence. Would we have Sterling with an agreement from Westminster? Or would we have Sterling with no agreement? Sterling with an agreement was quickly ruled out as an option (dispite all logic) by the chancellor meaning Scotland was heading towards currency oblivion with no clear plan. Neither were people convinced that Sterling without an agreement could possibly have a favourable outcome for Scotland.

The unfortunate reality is that Salmond was right and he betted that logic would prevail, however he underestimated the Tories mendacity in the matter and was left promising something the could not deliver. Ironically the Tories find themselves today in a very similar situation of hoping for an mutually beneficial settlement with Europe, hoping that economic logic prevails over political vision. The success of Brexit will largely be determined by what Germany decides to do next. It would be laughable if the consequences were not so serious.

The Scottish Pound

So, we cannot rely on using Sterling and we should be very cautious about using the Euro. Should we not seriously consider having our own currency? Say we sign up for the single market, for free movement but we keep our own currency. This is different to what Brexit voters want, but reflects Scotland's vision. We would have full control of economy - more than Scotland has ever had. Our government's desire to borrow would be tempered, thankfully, by our credit rating. We would enjoy the benefits of the single market and continue to allow people to move freely in and out of Scotland. Plenty of other countries manage to operate on this basis - e.g. Poland, Sweden, Denmark - why not Scotland?

The Scottish Pound is our safest bet for an independent Scotland. Unless something changes dramatically, there will be no over-arching political or federal union in Europe, and so we should not assume the problems that have beset the Euro currency will suddenly disappear any time soon. Yes, there are different risks with having our own currency but we will be at liberty to confront these with the full suite of economic levers available to us. Rather than with one hand tied behind our backs.